Math State Predictions - North Carolina

I chose North Carolina because I think that off-shore drilling is a very important issue that faces the United States. It is crucial that we become independent of foreign oil, but is it worth it to risk destroying coral reefs that have been growing slowly for millions of years? North Carolina has also been declared as one of the country’s major swing states for this year’s election. I have lived in North Carolina for my entire life and I think that it would be interesting to be able to predict which candidate will win the state.

 

 

I found that this project was exceptionally easier than it sounded. I think that my findings are very accurate, and want to be able to compare them to how the actual election turns out, to be able to see if this method really is as effective as it seems. My graphs have lead me to believe that Senator Obama will win the state of North Carolina, and that the line of linear regression on my graph of his percents was far steeper than Senator McCain’s; the positive inclination of Senator Obama’s line shows that it is more likely that he will win.

Obama Table and Graph

McCain Table and Graph

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Republican Party Collage

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The Essential Question

How does the individual affect change in the community? How does the community affect change in the individual?

 

The individual has a choice in life: to take action, or to sit back and watch everyone else. When someone chooses to take action, depending on the nature with which he or she performed this act, it will either affect his or her community positively or negatively. Everyone has a decision on how he or she will change his or her environment, whether it is helpful or harmful. When the individual decides to take that extra step and help in the community, it benefits everyone within that community and it will give him or her a credibility to share his or her thoughts throughout the group. If he or she decides to do nothing and just sit back, then his or her opinion will be irrelevant to the rest of the people in the community.

 

Whether or not the individual partakes in the community’s activities is a big factor of the community’s effect on the individual, however, the community may still affect they individual even if he or she chose to have nothing to do with it. Whether the individual prefers it or not, the community will always have at least a minimal effect on his or her life. He or she may not particularly like the outcome of the community’s decisions, such as the presidential election, but there if he or she chose not to actively participate in getting his or her desired outcome, then that is his or her decision.

 

The community will always have an effect on the individual and vice versa.

Lipstick on a Pig: Political Cartoon-5

Bringing in a highly publicized change, such as gender, is being used to divert the country’s attention from the Republican Party’s inflexible views by creating an illusion that it has been altered. The first image in the cartoon is a large pig that is labeled “McCain Campaign Smear Tactics.” This shows how the Republican Party is using the selection of Palin to be vice president as a distraction from its unchanging ways. The second image in Senator McCain saying, “You may not be pretty, but you sure keep people distracted!” while he is putting lipstick on the pig. This bases itself of off Senator Obama’s comment, “You can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig.” It shows how it doesn’t matter how much you modify the image of the Republican Party, it will still be the Republican Party.

Katy Couric: Political Cartoon-4

Katy Couric is among the newscasters who have been viewed as biased against candidates based on their interview questions. The first image in the cartoon is Katy Couric sitting in a chair across from John McCain and Sarah Palin, with a skeptical expression. The represents the interview that she conducted with Sarah Palin and how it seemed to display her political preferences rather openly. The second image is Sarah Palin in a doll case holding a rifle. The box is labeled “Extra! Tina Fey mini-me!” The side of the box is a parody of the John McCain and Sarah Palin campaign poster; it says “Geezer/Gidget.” John McCain is saying, “*Sigh* Go ahead with you unfair, “Gotcha,” Hockey-Mom-Hating, Elitist questions.” This shows how John McCain and Sarah Palin, as well as Republicans across the country, believe that Katy Couric’s questions were offensive and biased. The Republican Party believes that Katy Couric’s interview and questions were engineered specifically to make Sarah Palin look bad.

Political Baggage: Political Cartoon-3

Sarah Palin is toting too many strong religious beliefs with her to Washington, and if she does become the vice president, it may be overwhelming to a lot of the country. The first image in the cartoon is a large suitcase that is labeled “Sarah’s Former Church of 26 Years” and is covered in bumper stickers that read: “Holy Laughter,” Fundamentalism, “End Times” Worldview, Teaching Creationism in School, Against sex Education, “Tongues Speaking,” Anti-Choice, Gay-Intolerant, “Spiritual Welfare” (Demon-Hunting), and Faith-Healing. This image shows all of Sarah Palin’s beliefs, although some are portrayed as extreme or even mocked. The second image is Sarah Palin pulling the suitcase in the direction of Washington, shown by a sign on the ground, with the words “Extreme Religious Baggage in Tow…” written above her head. This is showing how she is planning to bring all of her religious beliefs with her to the election and campaign, although it may seem rather severe.

Boring!: Political Cartoon-2

Obama and Palin both preach change over and over again, but at the same time they criticize each other for it. Barack Obama is standing at a podium saying, “Change we can believe in.” This shows how Obama is considered to repeat the same thing time and time again: change. On the other side of the cartoon, Sarah Palin is shown yelling, “BORING!” and pointing at Obama. This shows how Palin is saying that Obama’s speeches about change are boring and repetitive, even though it is what she herself talks about if she becomes vice president. Candidates are sometimes repetitive with what they say in speeches but neglect to realize it when critiquing themselves.

Republican Lemonade Stand: Political Cartoon-1

The Republican Party is using the concerns of the country to their benefit by sweetening them up. There is a pile of rotten lemons that are leaking and have flies flying around them. They read: torture, climate crisis, tax policy, mortgage crisis, Cheney, Rove, Katrina, debt, Iraq and health care; this shows America’s issues, especially the ones that are being sweetened by the candidates. In the next panel, McCain and the Republican Party elephant are at a lemonade stand that is labeled “Very Expensive Lemonade,” and are smirking. This shows how presidential candidates (this cartoon focuses on the Republican party specifically) will make problems look and sound better. Candidates will use issues to their advantage to get either votes or publicity that will help their campaign.

Election Interview

1. If any, which party do you usually affiliate yourself with?

 

“Democrat.”

 

2. Is there any specific reason (or multiple reasons) you prefer this party?

 

“Generally more socially-oriented, although I used to vote Republican more with terms of budget.”

 

3. How did the announcement of vice presidential candidates influence your vote? Why or why not?

 

“Sarah Palin is by no means ready – it had a tremendous impact on any decision to not vote for McCain.”

 

4. What are a few issues that you think are especially important in this election? Why?

 

-                “Certainly the economy and the culture of deregulation that benefits cronies of politicians.”

-                “The resolution of the two wars in the Mid East.”

 

5. Do you believe that the two final candidates were the ideal representatives for the Republican and Democratic parties? If not, who would be? Why or why not?

 

“I think – feverently – that the two presidential candidates are the best choices we have for the time – both moderate in their parties. I would’ve loved to have voted for a McCain/Obama ticket,”

Technology's Connection to the Election

Barack Obama:

           

            Obama wants to keep the Internet open because he believes that that is why it has been such a success for so many years. However, he understands the need to keep children safe from some of the things that the Internet has to offer. He respects the first amendment, and feels that more programs need to be enacted to give parents control over what their kids have access to. The parent controls the he plans on creating are still going to respect the individual’s right to privacy.

            He plans on using the newest technology to improve the government and its connection to the population. One way he plans on doing this is by hiring the country’s first Chief Technology Officer, who will make sure that the government will be properly prepared for the 21^st century. In this improvement, he will also address the necessity of the nation’s children being prepared for the upcoming enhancements of technology and the economy.

 

 

John McCain:

 

            McCain plans on investing money in America’s innovation when it comes to technology, without taxing it. He believes that the younger generations have to be properly educated to be able to handle the upcoming “Innovation Age.” They must be able to compete in the global market and without this skill, America will suffer immensely in the near future.

            He is against the government’s regulation of the Internet and believes that it should remain a free domain. He feels that it is a major marketplace for American consumers. Senator McCain also believes that the nation needs to stay connected and that the Internet plays a key role in it. One of the things that he thinks needs to happen before all of these improvements, however, is easily-accessible high-speed Internet for all Americans.

Science's Connection to the Election

Offshore Drilling –

 

            Offshore drilling is the mining the raw materials that are found underwater close to a shoreline. Currently, offshore drilling is present in the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, near the coasts of Brazil, Newfoundland, and Nova Scotia, and adjacent to Nigeria, Angola and South East Asia. It provides the same resources as drilling on land, however it is somewhat harder to manage and risks more environmental impacts. When drilling offshore, there is a possibility of oil spills, as well as hazardous dumping into the surrounding ocean or sea; this includes drilling fluid, chemicals used in oil production and metal cuttings from platforms. Whether we should drill off of our coasts or not is still being disputed and the candidates have been flip-flopping between opinions.

 

            Barack Obama is against offshore drilling in general, although he has said that he would accept a compromise on the subject if it were a small price to pay for an outcome of lower prices on energy. He believes that offshore drilling should not become a quick fix or a solution to our energy issues, but that it should be a temporary answer to give more of an opportunity to researching better and more advanced ways of improving our country’s energy management. He is considered to be flip-flopping about his opinion, although he denies it.

 

            John McCain supports drilling of off our coasts seemingly whole-heartedly. He has said that wee need offshore drilling immediately to ease the energy crisis that this country is currently experiencing. He has been aiming to terminate the current ban on offshore drilling. In his opinion, offshore drilling is required to control the gas and oil prices so that they will be more accommodative to the American public. He has been accused of flip-flopping, but not as drastically as Obama.

 

            I agree with Barack Obama. I believe that offshore drilling can be extremely harmful to our environment, but right now, it is one of our only options. I do think that we need to put more effort into finding alternative energy sources but until then we need to find temporary solutions to the major issues that America is enduring.

 

 

Nuclear Weapons –

 

            Nuclear weapons are different explosive devices that harness the power of nuclear reactions. They are known to cause big explosions and have earned the names of weapons of mass destruction. Ever since the first appearance of a nuclear weapon, their control and usage have been major topics of discussion within politics. The extent of their power within the military has caused the legalization of nuclear weapons in different countries all over the world to be a great dispute. The choice of whether or not to participate in nuclear warfare remains in the hands of the head of government in each particular country.

 

            Barack Obama strongly opposes the use of nuclear weaponry for any reason. He believes that it is time to eliminate any possibilities of nuclear warfare by sending out a message that America does not support any use of nuclear weapons and will not react to any attack by using nuclear energy. He knows that he cannot eliminate nuclear weapons from the world suddenly, but he hopes to affect other countries over time if he is elected to be president. Senator Obama has said that the eradication of nuclear weaponry is a matter of security and the wellbeing of future generations.

 

            John McCain may not strongly oppose nuclear weapons, but he does not support it either. He has said that to think that nuclear weapons will never be present in war ever again would be an inept fantasy. He believes that we should not try to rid the world of nuclear weapons completely, but that reducing the usage and discussion would be a more realistic solution. He has also proposed that we speak to other countries regarding nuclear weapons and their views on them.

 

            I do not particularly agree with either of the candidates. I’m not sure that I have an answer, because I agree with McCain that we have to be prepared in the case of a nuclear attack, but I disagree with him because he has said that it would be impossible to rid the world of nuclear weapons.

 

 

Global Warming –

 

            Global warming refers to the fact that the earth’s average temperature per year has risen drastically in the last few centuries. It is said to be caused by greenhouse effect, as well as natural events such as solar variation and volcanoes. Over thirty scientific societies and academies of science have supported these claims. Its predicted effects include eliminating certain species, create a drought around the Southwest and raise sea levels.

 

            Barack Obama believes that global warming is an outcome of humans’ interaction with our environment. He plans to increase our efficiency in energy, give America independence in the oil industry, creating a global-warming partnership across the world to raise awareness in other countries, especially the poorer nations that will be dramatically affected in the form of famine and drought.

 

            John McCain plans to make a system to reduce the release of greenhouse gases in our country. He believes that our solution to global warming should be shared with the rest of the world. He has said that by making the program to solve global warming should be based purely on science and should use a trade-system.

 

            I agree with Barack Obama, we need to drastically improve our dependency on energy and find a solution to global warming, as well as raise awareness to other countries.

 

10 Main Issues

Obama:

 

1.     Abortion –     

            Senator Obama supports a woman’s right to choose whether or not to have an abortion or not. Although he may not want all women to get abortions when presented with the chance, he has said that he believes that they can be trusted with the decision. He has also suggested more sex-education so that the choice does not have to be made as often.

2.     Education –

            Obama is a strong supported of funding charter schools “as a way to foster competition in the public school system.” He agrees with both the theory of creation as well as evolution, and has been quoted that he does not “think science generally is incompatible with Christian faith.”

3.     Death Penalty –

            Senator Obama believes that the death penalty does not really affect the amount and rate of crime in the country. He wrote a bill that forced the videotaping of interrogations and confessions and he disagreed on the June 25, 2008 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that disallowed the execution of child rapists.

4.     Environment –

            Obama opposes the proposed drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, but has said that he would consider allowing offshore drilling as a temporary fix to the high gas prices that are facing America. He has made a plan to use $150 billion within 10 years to make a green energy sector that would not only give the country clean, alternative energy, but also create around 5 million new jobs.

5.     Health Care –

            Senator Obama plans to create universal health care by 2012.  He has called the belief in this plan the core of the Democratic Party. He has proposed a national plan that is similar to the one that has been available to federal employees, in whish both individuals and businesses would be able to buy healthcare. It would automatically cover children, but not adults.

6.     Immigration –

            Obama supports adding new technology and structure to the border patrol systems to crack down on immigration and the employers that hire illegal workers. He plans on making a new method to show employee eligibility.

7.     Iraq War –

            Senator Obama has been quoted to call the war in Iraq a “dumb” and “rash” war. In 2004, he protested the war. He plans on removing combat brigades slowly at equal intervals to reach the goal of leaving Iraq within 16 months of his inauguration.

8.     Poverty –

            Obama has already set into action the state earned income tax credit as the senator of Illinois, which created tax cuts for lower class families. He has also planned to take the nation’s most poverty-stricken and academically struggling areas and transform them using “a full network of services” into more constructive neighborhoods.

9.     Stem Cell Research –

            Barack Obama encourages stem cell research. He voted for the Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act of 2005, which would have permit federal funding for research on human embryos that been made for fertility treatments.

 

McCain:

 

1.     Abortion –

            Senator McCain strongly opposes abortion and only supports it in the cases of rape, incest or possible risk to the mother. He opposes the outcome of Rode v. Wade and supports its cancellation. He has a record of voting against the legalization of abortion and believes in abstinence-based principles.

2.     Education –

            McCain is a supporter of vouchers that allow students to go to public or private schools.  He thinks that lower- and middle-class students should be able to have the same options as the upper-class families by being able to go to the best schools for them. He has referred to Darwin’s theory as “valid” but has said that kids should be exposed to all theories.

3.     Death Penalty –

            Senator McCain agrees with the use of the death penalty to enforce federal crimes. He voted to end the execution of minors and said that he would consider expanding capital punishment for other crimes.

4.     Environment –

            McCain will only support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge if it can be done in a way that does not threaten the environment. He supports lifting the ban on offshore drilling, although, most likely based on the rise in gas prices. He plans on using nuclear and solar energy along with other alternatives to minimize the amount of greenhouse gas emissions.

5.     Health Care –

            Senator McCain agrees with the use of tax credits to support families to purchase health insurance. He has supported making generic drugs easily attainable to the population as well as lowering the prices of prescriptions.

6.     Immigration –

            McCain believes that we need securer borders, but that we also need to attend to our country’s need for immigrant labor. He has supported the ideas of doubling border patrol, offering temporary visas for workers, and a system that would keep the skilled workers in our country.

7.     Iraq War –

            Senator McCain supports President Bush’s decisions regarding Iraq. However, he didn’t agree with all aspects of the way that it was being handled. He plans on staying because he thinks that pulling out now would leave Iraq unstable. He believes that leaving now would be victory for Al Qaeda.

8.     Poverty –

            McCain has said that the elimination of poverty would be given top priority if he is elected as president. He has said that in his opinion, “a strong and vibrant America, one in which people can move up into the middles class, put their kids through college, work hard and one day retire in dignity, is critical to not only our economic future but to the very security of our nation.”

9.     Stem Cell Research –

            Senator McCain objects stem cell research. He supported a few bills in 2006 that placed a ban on making embryos solely for research. Then, in 2007, he agreed to allow research that allowed the use of discarded human embryos from fertility treatments.

Mission Statements

Barack Obama:

 

            To protect children while still respecting the first amendment on the Internet; to give women the right choose whether or not to have an abortion; to provide the same opportunities of upper-class families for lower-class families; to create a method of capital punishment that is more effective than the death penalty; to create greener, cleaner forms of energy along with millions of jobs in that field; to create universal health care; to enhance the technology and infrastructure of border control; to get America out of Iraq as soon as possible; to reverse the spread of poverty in our nation; to legalize the use of discarded embryos for research; and to bring the change that America needs to the government.

 

John McCain:

 

            To invest in America’s technological innovation; to ban abortion and increasing sex education; to make vouchers that will allow students to attend either private or public school, depending on which best suits them; to use the death penalty when and where it is necessary; to lift the ban on offshore drilling to lower the gas prices; to lower the prices of generic drugs as well as prescriptions; to create a program for temporary visas for immigrant workers; to remain in Iraq; to make it easier to escalate to the middle-class; to ban the creation of human embryos simply for research; and to improve the country as a whole.

Candidate Biosketches

Barack Obama:

Barack Obama has experienced an extensive political career, however it may be considered diminutive when compared to other eligible candidates. He served in the Illinois State Senate for eight years, managing to create the state Earned Income Tax Credit, which assisted lowering working families’ tax cuts; supported early childhood education; and made videotaping interrogations and confessions a requirement in capital cases against criminals on death row. Allowing every single American citizen to log onto the Internet and find all of the details of how their tax dollars were used was Obama’s first passed law in the U.S. Senate, aiming to diminish the growing skepticism surrounding today’s government. As a former member of the Ilinois State Senate and a current member of the U.S. Senate, he has been exposed to working with both Republican and Democratic views.

Senator Obama’s personal understanding of family has led him to be able to connect with the majority of families in modern America. He was born on August 4, 1961 in Honolulu, Hawaii. He is the son of Ann Dunham from Wichita, Kansas, and Barack Obama Senior from Kenya. The two met as students at the University of Hawaii. His parents divorced when Barack Obama Junior was two years old and was raised by his mother, a single parent. He moved to Indonesia in 1967, only to move back to Hawaii after four years and live with his mother’s parents, Madelyn and Stanley Dunham. He then moved back in with his mother. He only reunited with his father once after his parents divorce, in 1971. In 1982, his father died in a car accident and in 1995, his mother died of ovarian cancer.

John McCain:

            John McCain’s past was extremely militarily based, which may lead voters to support him for his leadership. He was born on August 29, 1936 in the Panama Canal Zone at Coco Solo Naval Air Station. As a child, he constantly moved between naval bases in assorted countries. He graduated from Episcopal high school in Alexandria, Virginia in 1954. He then went on to the Naval Academy in Annapolis, graduating fifth from the top of his class in 1958. He graduated from flight school in 1960. McCain volunteered to fly bombing runs in North Vietnam. 134 men were killed by the explosions from when his A-4 Skyhawk plane was accidentally shot with a missile on the USS Forestral on July 29, 1967. During his twenty-third mission on October 26, 1967, he was shot down and broke both arms and one leg. He captured and relocated to Hoa Loa prison, also called the “Hanoi Hilton” on December 9, 1969. He was in captivity for five and a half years, more than half of the duration spent in solitary confinement, and during all of which he was continually beaten and tortured. He was released on March 14, 1973, along with other American POWs. He has earned the Silver Star, Bronze Star, Purple Heart and the Distinguished Flying Cross

            McCain’s knowledge of politics may not be as broad as his experience in the military, but it is still considered, by many, enough to be the president of the United States. His political career first began when he was elected from Arizona to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1982, a position where he fought for reforming Washington, stopping excessive government spending and supporting America’s armed forces. These views led him to being elected to the United States Senate four years later, where he set out to repair the system in Washington. He was reelected with almost 77% of voters. 

Joe Biden:

            Joeseph Robinette Biden Junior has had many experiences with family during his life, but it is not as much of a focus as some of the other candidates’ families are. He was born on November 20, 1942 in Scranton, Pennsylvania. His parents were Joeseph Senior and Jean Biden and he was their first out of four children. He moved, with his family, to Claymont, Delaware in 1953. His grandfather was a state senator in Pennsylvania. He married Neilia Hunter on August 27, 1966 while still in law school. He then had three children: Joeseph R. “Beau” Biden III, Robert Hunter and Naomi Christina. In 1970, his first wife and daughter were killed in a car accident that also injured both of his sons. He traveled to Washington from his sons’ hospital everyday by train. Then, in 1977, Senator Biden married his second wife, Jill Jacobs. She holds a PhD in education and has taught in Delaware’s schools for over 20 years. She is currently teaching at Delaware Technical Community College. Biden now has three children: Beau, Hunter and Ashley. Beau is currently an Attorney General in Delaware and is going to Iraq this October. Hunter is an attorney and Ashley is a social worker. He now has five grandchildren: Naomi, Finnegan, Roberta Mabel, Natalie and Robert Hunter.

            He has a strong political past. In 1970, he ran for New Castle County Council, at age 27, and won as a Democrat in a Republican district. He then campaigned against Caleb Bogg, who was prepared to retire, for a seat in the Senate and with his sister as his campaign manager and basically no money, he somehow managed to win by 3,162 votes on November 7, 1972.

Sarah Palin:

            Sarah Palin has reached many of her goals to improve her state since becoming the eleventh governor of Alaska. She has improved the system in Alaska, and during her term as governor, the state saved $5 billion, education funding was raised and the Senior Benefits Program was modified to help more senior citizens with low-income rates. She has also started Alaska’s Petroleum Systems Integrity Office in order to keep track of the oil and gas companies’ equipment, facilities, etc. as well as the Climate Change Subcabinet, an organization formed to create a plan to recover Alaska’s decomposing environment. She reorganized the priorities and ethics of her state, which have become the law since her first legislative session. She proposed a gas pipeline, which has turned into the construction of a natural gas pipeline that is worth around $40 billion dollars. She is against wasteful spending - like her running mate, John McCain, - and cut about half a billion dollars of it. She also fired her personal chef and driver as well as sold the state’s private jet.

            Her family is a big part of her life, but many believe that it may be an obstacle if she does, in fact, reach the White House. She first moved to Alaska first in 1964 with her parents. Governor Palin went to Wasilla High School and graduated in 1982. She attended the University of Idaho and graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism in 1987. She moved around in Alaska between towns including Skagway, Eagle River and Wasilla. Her husband, whom she met in high school, is a commercial fisherman as well as a world champion snow machine racer. They have been married for a little over 20 years. Together they have five children: Track, Bristol, Willow, Piper and Trig. September 11, 2007, Track enlisted in the army and is scheduled to be sent to Iraq.